实战专项：现实命题与反事实世界

唯一新困难：反事实

without, otherwise, had it not been for 描述未发生条件下可能出现的结果。做题要分清现实事实与假设世界，不能把“若无A则B”误读成现实中B已经发生。

自拟短文

The wetland absorbed much of the storm water. Without it, nearby streets would probably have flooded more severely. This does not mean the wetland prevented all damage; several buildings still required repairs.

题目：What does the passage imply?

A. The streets suffered no flooding.
B. The wetland likely reduced the severity of flooding.
C. The wetland caused the storm.
D. Every damaged building stood outside the area.

两个世界

现实世界：湿地吸收大量雨水，仍有建筑需修。反事实世界：没有湿地，街道可能淹得更严重。比较两世界可得“湿地降低严重程度”，故 B。

A 删除末句限制；C 倒置关系；D 无中生有。would probably 仍保留推测强度，不能改成 certainly。

反事实不等于全因果证明

作者提出合理反事实，但没有说湿地是唯一影响因素。正确选项保留 likely 和 severity，而非“完全防止”。

迁移练习

将 Without the reminder, more patients might have missed appointments 改写为现实作用。

**答案：**提醒可能减少了爽约数量。不能推出提醒消除了全部爽约。

独立动作验收

分别写出现实与反事实命题，再说明从二者差异能推出什么、不能推出什么。

严格答案还需保留 probably：结论是“很可能减轻”，而不是实验性地证明了确定因果。若译文丢掉概率词，推理边界仍然越界。